Post by Matt Ravis, Thunder Radio Network Co-Host | @mattravis on X (Twitter)
You made it through the NBA offseason. Between the draft, summer league, and the FIBA World Cup — it wasn’t that bad, was it?
Still, there’s no substitution for the real thing, and I can feel the hype pressing against the ceiling like a pressure cooker.
Even with that hype, this was a sub .500 basketball team last year who will need to improve to meet expectations.
Let’s go over a few of the biggest questions facing this squad this season.
Is there another All-Star on this team?
Yes, I know Woj said this team potentially has four all-stars and that Chet Holmgren might be an MVP candidate someday — but let’s pump the brakes. This team has one All-Star right now — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
And for him to garner that accolade, he had to play at an All-Star level for two straight years before being recognized.
Many a Sports Animal caller has asked us, “which star will the Thunder trade for?” It’s a valid question given their draft capital, but what if they already have that star?
One would have to point to the following three players as possibly having All-Star potential: Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Josh Giddey.
We’ll start in reverse order with Giddey. He’s an excellent floor general with the ability to see passing lanes before they open and find cutting teammates for easy baskets.
However, his perimeter shooting will keep him from taking the next step if it does not improve. Although he bumped it up considerably last season (from about 26% to 32%), he will need to shoot at least league average (36%) to make defenders respect his jump shot.
Chet Holmgren was incredibly efficient in the preseason (65 points in 77 minutes) and showed ability to protect the rim (two blocks per game). He was aggressive off the dribble and showcased his handle, taking good care of the ball for the most part. It’s incredibly early to talk about Chet being an All-Star, but he certainly has the potential.
On the other hand, I do feel comfortable tabbing Jalen Williams as a future All-Star. As the season wore on, and more and more was being put on his plate, he continued to eat. Actually, he feasted.
In his final 29 games, J-Dub averaged 17 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4 assists, and nearly two steals. He was also remarkably efficient, shooting 53% from the field and 42% from three.
He’s powerful, well put together, skilled, and has a great motor — playing hard every night.
This year will be tough, but I will not be surprised if Jalen Williams is an All-Star in year three.
How will Mark Daigneault handle his rotation?
Coach Daigneault has his work cut out for him this year. Outside of the main five lineup (Giddey-SGA-Dort-Williams-Holmgren), the different combinations and configurations you can assemble of this roster is like playing with legos. Imagination is the only limit.
A quick sub-question to my main point: who is the 6th man? I’m not sure anyone knows for sure.
The following is a list of players (minus the five I already named) who I believe will play considerable rotation minutes for the Thunder this year: Vasilije Micic, Ousmane Dieng, Davis Bertans, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams.
That’s leaving out players whose future with the team are tenuous (Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski) and the Two-Way contract players (Lindy Waters, Olivier Sarr, Keyontae Johnson).
If you take their best five-man lineup and add the eight other names I listed, that leaves us with 13 players. By the end of the season, most coaches have their lineups dialed in to eight or nine players deep. We will be closely monitoring how Mark Daigneault chooses to configure his rotations.
How many games will they win?
Ah, this question. It might be the most difficult question facing this team to forecast. The Thunder shocked everybody when they won 40 games last year, 16 more than the previous season. With no significant subtractions and seemingly significant additions, could the Thunder step up and win 45? 50?
In this West, it’ll be tough. The Nuggets and Suns are virtual locks to be the class of the conference. The Grizzlies, Warriors, Lakers, Clippers would love to figure into the home court advantage conversation.
This is where the Thunder enter the picture, I believe. The next tier in the West includes the Thunder, Timberwolves, Kings, Pelicans, and Mavs.
It’s nearly impossible to predict because there’s so much variance. Any of those five teams could make or miss the playoffs.
One important stat OKC needs to improve on: in clutch time (within five points in the final five minutes), they had 26 losses last year, tied for 26th in the league. It’s tough for young teams to execute in crunch time, and that will be vital for this team’s success this year.
If we’re talking floor, I think the Thunder are in the top eight. Even ninth or 10th could still take some effort depending on the health of teams ahead of them. The West is stacked.
Ceiling-wise? I think it’s the five seed or so. If Jalen Williams takes the All-Star jump ahead of schedule, if SGA remains efficient as all hell, if Chet Holmgren stays healthy — they can be a force in the West.
My official prediction is for the Thunder to finish 44-38, 7th in the West.