Post by Matt Meyer | @Bluto51 on X
Humiliating end to the season for the Dallas Cowboys as they were blown out of AT&T Stadium by the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card Round. Packers beat the Cowboys 48-32 in a game that was nowhere near that close. Dallas ended the regular season at 12-5 but was dismissed from the playoffs without a win, despite being the number 2 seed in the NFC, which guaranteed them at least two home games in the playoffs as long as they were alive. So much for that. Green Bay moves on to meet the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday at 7:15 on FOX.
The Packers were fantastic in every facet of this game. Don’t be fooled by the stat sheet; the vast majority of the Cowboys’ production was racked up long after the game was decided. Jordan Love was sensational, going 16-21 for 272 yards with 3 scores. Dallas’ defense had no answers for what Green Bay was doing offensively. Receivers were open all day. Didn’t understand the Cowboys using as much zone coverage as they did, unless they were worried that Stephon Gilmore wasn’t fully healthy. Dallas has primarily been a man team all year long so to play as much zone as they did was puzzling, and it certainly didn’t work.
Dallas couldn’t stop the run either as Aaron Jones continued his mastery of the Cowboys. Jones ran it 21 times for 113 yards and 3 scores, and a fake to him on a play action pass to Romeo Doubs led to the Packers’ final score of the game. Getting Jones healthy is a fantastic development for Green Bay as they will have to be as balanced as possible in order to have success against the San Francisco defense.
As for Dallas’ defense, they’ve ranked highly in total, scoring, and pass defense all season. However, when the Cowboys have faced the better teams, the defense hasn’t been nearly as good. San Francisco, Buffalo, and Green Bay torched the Cowboys, and Philadelphia, Seattle, and Miami all had some success as well. When teams decided to line up and run the ball right at Dallas, the Cowboys couldn’t hold up. Run defense is an area in which this team must improve. Frankly, this defense resembled the school bully; they beat up on the little kids, but when someone their own size got in their face, things didn’t go very well.
The Cowboys didn’t get on the board until the last play of the first half and the production in the second half came against a Packers defense that was clearly trying to keep everything in front of him. In a season in which Dak Prescott was much better taking care of the football than last year, two interceptions in the first half helped Green Bay run away with the game. His first interception, picked by Jaire Alexander, set up the Packers second TD, Jones’ second of the day, which put Green Bay up 14-0. The backbreaker was a Darnell Savage 64 yard interception return for a score that made it 27-0 with 1:50 left in the second quarter.
I’ll continue to say what I’ve consistently said about Prescott his entire career; he’s a good QB, but not an elite one. He’s a talented player and by all appearances a tremendous leader, but he has not proven to be someone who can put the team on his back and carry them a long way. No QB, not even the greatest to ever play, can do it alone. However, the great ones take care of the ball and make plays in the clutch in the postseason. To this point in his career, Prescott has not done that.
At the beginning of the season, it appeared that Mike McCarthy wanted to rely more on the rushing attack and a ball control approach, not asking Prescott to throw the ball down the field as much. As the season progressed, particularly after the bye week in late October, this offense gradually got away from the ball control approach that McCarthy had in mind. For the most part, the offense put up fantastic numbers and Prescott was on the fringes of MVP consideration. Unfortunately, Prescott’s two interceptions were a big reason why the Cowboys’ season came crashing down. Even if Prescott played great against Green Bay, I’m not sure the Cowboys win because of how terrible they were on defense. There’s plenty of blame to go around for such an embarrassing performance against a surging Packers club.
So, McCarthy. As of this writing, he’s still the head coach of the Cowboys, and I’d bet that he will stay in Dallas. I wouldn’t bet a lot, but I’m guessing Jerry Jones will keep him. Not often you fire a coach who’s led teams to three straight 12-5 seasons, making the playoffs each time. I’m not here to say that Mike McCarthy is an all time great coach. His game management has sent me diving for the antacid many times. However, he’s 65 games over .500 in 17 seasons, he’s won a Super Bowl as a head coach, and he’s been in 4 NFC Championship games in 12 trips to the playoffs. The end of this season was beyond disappointing, to put it mildly, and if you can make an upgrade, you owe it to the organization to do it. Outside of Bill Belichick, Mike Vrabel, or Jim Harbaugh, I’m not sure that there’s a better coach out there than McCarthy that would be available, and McCarthy has had more success in the NFL than Vrabel or Harbaugh, though both of those guys are excellent coaches. Maybe there is someone better, and if so, Jones should go get him.
However, how much do I trust Jones to go get that coach, and even if he does, to stay out of his way? Not at all is your answer. Jones will not cede control of personnel to whoever he hires, which is a big reason why I don’t believe Belichick is realistic. Plus, Belichick is good friends with Jimmy Johnson. Sure, Johnson and Jones are getting along these days, but if Belichick called Johnson and asked him, “what do I need to know about working for Jones,” Johnson would let him know, and my guess would be that Belichick wouldn’t like what he’d hear.
Consider this: beginning the year after the Cowboys last Super Bowl season in 1995, 28 seasons have come and gone. The Cowboys have been to the playoffs in 13 of those seasons, winning the NFC East 9 times and earning 4 wild card berths. That’s less than half of the time since their last championship that Dallas has been in the postseason, and that’s with 3 straight trips from ‘21-‘23. Over the course of those 13 playoff appearances in 28 seasons, the Cowboys have won 5 playoff games, and one of those came the first season after the last championship. Only two teams in the NFC have a longer drought than the Cowboys of making the NFC Title game: Detroit and Washington, who played each other in 1991. The Lions are a home win over the Buccaneers away from ending their drought this year. There’s only three teams in the AFC that haven’t been in a conference championship game over the last 28 seasons: Houston, Cleveland, and Miami, and the Texans and these Browns haven’t been around for all of those.
Now, over those 28 seasons, there have been seven head coaches: Barry Switzer, Chan Gailey, Dave Campo, Bill Parcells, Wade Phillips, Jason Garrett, and Mike McCarthy. There’s been one general manager. You tell me what the bigger problem is. Any other GM in professional sports wouldn’t have a chance of lasting that long. In an alternative universe, if Jones hired a GM and gave him full control, and if that GM had that lack of success, he wouldn’t be around for a quarter of that time.
All that to say, I’m not convinced McCarthy is the problem. He’s not Tom Landry or Vince Lombardi, but the bigger problem is twofold. One, the GM, and two, the entire culture of the organization, which I believe is cultivated by the GM. To quote the great Jim Ross, the Dallas Cowboys are all sizzle and very little steak. The great teams and organizations have an intangible toughness and grit about them that I’ve rarely seen in Dallas since the glory years. I think some of the head coaches have tried to instill it, but Jones is the one in charge. He wants his share of the credit, so I’m going to give him his share of the blame. If Jones does move on from McCarthy, I hope he gets someone better, and I’m not convinced many coaches that are better than McCarthy are available and willing to work for Jones.
Big decisions loom this offseason. Prescott will count 59 million against next year’s salary cap, and as of now, he’s a free agent after next season. An extension lowering his cap hit for next year seems likely. LT Tyron Smith is one of my favorite Cowboys of all time, and I believe he’s a Hall of Famer. I also believe it’s time to move on from him considering his injury history. Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn could land a head coaching job, and the Green Bay disaster notwithstanding, he’s done a terrific job over the last three years rebuilding this defense. If extensions aren’t reached, CeeDee Lamb will be a free agent after next season, and Micah Parsons will be the year after that.
Dallas should be a playoff contender next season, although next year’s opponents outside of the division include the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Texans, Buccaneers, Browns, and Steelers, plus the Bengals who could have Joe Burrow back. Tough sledding, but welcome to the NFL. There’s a lot on the GM’s plate over the next few months; I just wish there was a different GM sitting at the table.