Planning to enter the top four of the draft lottery is like planning an Oklahoma outdoor wedding in May. You may have ideas, but luck can take its course. In the NBA draft lottery, the Thunder came pretty close to feeling perfect weather.
Picking 2nd and 12th in the draft is something any NBA team would wish for.
Up until the draft, I’ll make the case for various prospects as to why the Thunder should take them.
First up is the player I find most intriguing: Chet Holmgren.
If the Magic let him fall (or if the Thunder trade up to no. 1, which is possible but not necessarily likely), Holmgren is one of the highest upside players we have seen come through the draft process.
Yes, he is a project. A massive one. But just look at how much he grew in his one season at Gonzaga.
Anybody who tells you they know who he will be in the NBA is a liar. But the ideal version of Chet as a complete player is terrifying: a transcendent rim protector who can handle the ball and pass at well-above-average levels. And he has a smooth jumper defenses will have to respect.
In other words, the modern NBA in a nutshell: the league is constantly trending towards size, skill, and shooting. A fully realized Chet is basically a cheat code.
His numbers in college point to his potential: he shot 39% from three and over 60% (!!!) from the field. He averaged 3.7 blocks per game — just a staggering number. And you typically see block leaders in college do the same thing in the pros. He should be an excellent help defender and rim protector.
The other side of that coin is his potential downside. If he never gains weight and strength he’ll be pushed around like a ragdoll by most players, and will be absolutely abused by guys like Nikola Jokic. His durability is a concern because of that. And it leads to the potential of foul trouble.These aren’t easy concerns to waive.
Stat-wise, most concerning to me is his free throw percentage and his attempt rate. 72% from the line leaves some to be desired, and efficiency from the stripe can be an indicator of shooting potential. He only averaged three attempts per game, which is concerning, but explainable with the talent he played with. He will need to be more aggressive at the professional level.
One thing I do love about Holmgren is his toughness and aggressiveness. Although Jalen Duren from Memphis was able to take advantage of his lack of strength, I was impressed with Holmgren’s toughness. A lesser player may have bowed out — I see Alkesej Pokusevski do it from time to time — but he remained tough. Click here to see an example from the game.
Speaking of Poku, Holmgren is not Poku 2.0, so get it out of your mind. It’s tempting to compare their size and skinniness and their ball skills. But Holmgren is already a better shooter, a better ball handler, and moves way more fluidly than Poku.
In fact, there really are no comparisons for Holmgren, which is what makes him so fascinating to me. Although the term ‘unicorn’ doesn’t mean as much anymore thanks to the decline of Kristaps Porzingis, Chet may actually be one.
Despite the inherent bust factor, you can make a great case for Chet Holmgren. I’ll be banging the drum for the Thunder to draft him if available.