Up until the NBA draft, I’ll be breaking down potential targets for the Oklahoma City Thunder. If you missed my Chet Holmgren analysis last week, click here to see why he’s my favorite prospect.
Is Jabari Smith a perennial All-NBA player? He has a very high ceiling, and even the worst version of Smith should be an effective piece for any team.
But the Thunder don’t want to settle for ‘good’ – they’re looking for ‘great.’
Although I personally prefer Holmgren, I view Jabari Smith as being in the same tier as him. They are both worthy of being the first overall pick.
The first thing anybody should mention when discussing Smith is his shooting. He shot an eye-opening 42% from three in his only season at Auburn, on a healthy volume to boot. His shooting is intriguing at any position, but he would fit right in at the four spot for the Thunder.
His release is very quick, and it’s so high that, combined with his height (6’10”), it’s tough to contest his shot. He seems to ignore closeouts, making a lot of contested shots, which is the sign of a shooter with no conscience. In the corner, he’s deadly.
He’s a special shotmaker.
Another bonus: although the mid-range is out of fashion, he could be efficient enough to warrant letting him take those shots. His ability to pull up off of the dribble is reminiscent of a former Thunder player: Kevin Durant.
(Jabari Smith is NOT Durant, though – more on that later. It’s a lazy comparison.)
You can not overstate just how good his shotmaking is from the perimeter and mid-range.
Defensively, he has every tool you need to make NBA all-defensive teams. As mentioned, he has great height and ability to move. His wingspan is excellent at 7’1”. And he is super versatile – Smith will be able to guard many wings, most fours, and even the occasional five. In a switchy league, he’ll fit right in.
His steal and block numbers were good too (2.1 combined per game) which typically translate from the college level. Smith also doesn’t foul very much.
I’ve noticed that people tend to ignore Smith’s downside, which probably has much to do with his floor. The worst version of Jabari Smith should still be an effective NBA player because of his shooting and defensive versatility.
But I’ve got to admit: the Durant comparisons annoy me. It’s not fair to Durant or Smith. Just because they’re tall, skinny, and can shoot does not make them the same.
Durant is maybe the best ballhandler 6’10”-plus that we have ever seen! Smith is not a great ballhandler. Durant is incredible at creating his own shot on all three levels. Smith relies on his jumper (which he hits at a very high rate).
Don’t even call him a “poor man’s Kevin Durant.”
Because Smith doesn’t get to the rim at a high level like Durant, teams will be able to shade him defensively and guard him closer on the perimeter (which may not even matter because of the aforementioned shooting ability). He will need to get better at that to realize his full potential.
A better comparison may be a guy like Rashard Lewis. Lewis was somewhat ahead of his time with his ability to shoot at his size, but he was still a multi-time all-star. He was not a great self-creator but was deadly spotting up. I view Lewis as an approximate mid-range outcome for Smith, potential-wise.
(Quick note on comparisons: most of them are useless because of how unique each player is.)
Smith could also stand to rebound better, and I’m not sure what his playmaking ability is yet. These feel like minor quibbles because he won’t be drafted to provide either of those things. They would just be bonuses.
The real question about Smith will be the one I posed at the beginning of this piece: will he be the caliber of player Sam Presti is searching for? Or will he simply be a three-and-D player? The latter is not a bad thing. Every NBA team needs some of those. But every NBA team would rather have the next young superstar.