Of the “big three” draft prospects, Paolo Banchero is, in my opinion, the most NBA-ready. He should be able to be an instant offensive contributor.
In fact, because of his size, level of polish, and ability to self-create, I might predict him to win Rookie of the Year, depending on where he lands.
The question with Banchero lies in where his upside is, and how much work he’s willing to put in on the defensive end.
Each week, I’ll be writing about various prospects the Thunder could choose in the NBA. (Click here for last week’s analysis on Jabari Smith.)
At 6’10” and 250 lbs, Banchero has an NBA-ready body. And his skillset is NBA-ready too.
One of the most important things a star can do is create his own shot, and Banchero can do that in spades. He can go around you with his shiftiness. He finds angles that others can’t due to his great footwork. And his size and strength allow him to straightline bulldoze the defender if that’s the optimal path to the bucket.
In short: he is very skilled at finding and getting to his spots with the ball in a way that Holmgren and Smith are not.
He’s also prone to shooting the midrange and knocking it down at a very high level — something that makes it tougher to guard him honestly. He can pull up off the dribble from that range or shoot fadeaways with his back to the defender.
I’m also excited about Banchero’s ability to contribute off the ball, despite the fact that we saw a lot of 1-on-1 last year from him. He will come into the league a very good pick-and-pop player, and although Coach K rarely used him as a roll man, I’m intrigued to see what he can do there. His ability to catch and shoot is also better than his numbers show.
All of this leads to a player who is very polished and crafty already. He grew up playing the guard position, which lends to his versatility on the floor. It also means that he’s an above average playmaker, someone who can make the correct passes when he’s double-teamed or when a teammate is open cross-court in the corner.
There are two big stumbling blocks that, if Banchero can hurdle, could mean a path towards stardom.
The first is the aforementioned defense. He is not quick enough laterally to handle guarding pick-and-rolls without switching. This makes it tough to use him as a small-ball five without giving up a lot at the rim. Any good guard will attack him there.
He also has a tendency to get lost in offensive sets (See the Duke-UNC Final Four game). His focus can disappear at times when chasing defenders around. Banchero also does not offer much rim protection. Some have questioned his effort on that end of the floor.
The other gap in his game is the three-point shot. He shot just under 34% from three. Not terrible, but he is at times unreliable and must pick his spots on the floor. Simply put, he is an average shooter of the three-ball. If he can make defenses guard him from the perimeter, his game truly has all-star potential.
Banchero will be the third choice on the big board of many, and he is on mine as well. I’m very confident that Banchero will be a good NBA player, just as I said about Jabari Smith. But the Thunder are looking for ‘great’ with their second pick.
I don’t necessarily see Banchero as a fit with the Thunder considering that they have plenty of ball-dominant players already. (But don’t rule anything out with Sam Presti — he loves a draft surprise.) Regardless, his NBA-readiness will serve some team well if they can put up with some defensive limitations and inconsistency.
And if he can become a, say, 37% three-point shooter, he will be such a lethal offensive weapon that his defense may hardly matter.
Whoever drafts Banchero will get a talented player whose flaws are evident. And as long as flaws are evident, there’s a chance they can be fixed. Stay tuned.